The Obukhov Institute
of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
analysed RosgidrometFederal Service for Hydrometeorology and
Environmental Monitoring (Rosgidromet).data on various climate factors
in the regions where the Company’s production sites are located,
covering a period from the 1960s to the present. The observations
indicate significant changes in certain climatic factors, such as average air
temperatures. Changes recorded by the Norilsk weather station support
the conclusion that temperatures in the Arctic are rising significantly
faster than the global average: +0.6 °C per decade in Norilsk vs +0.18 °C per
decade globally.
Average air temperature in 1961–2022, °C
In addition to evaluating
the long‑term climate trends identified in Nornickel’s regions
of operation, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics
of the Russian Academy of Sciences developed climate projections up
to 2050. The regional forecasts are based on three
IPCC global scenarios (SSP1‑2.6, SSP2‑4.5, and SSP5‑8.5) and the CMIP6
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.ensemble of climate models.
For the SSP2‑4.5 climate scenario, which the Company considers the most
likely, the following major changes are projected by 2050.
Projected climate factor changes by 2050
(vs 2022)
Climate factor
Norilsk Industrial District
Murmansk Region
Trans‑Baikal Territory
Average air temperature
+1.5 °C
+1.1 °C
+1 °C
Thickness
of the seasonally thawed soil layer
The term “permafrost
degradation” is used in the context
of the assessment.
This factor
is particularly relevant for evaluating infrastructure
risks outside urban areas
+0.8m
Irrelevant
Irrelevant
Annual precipitation
Mainly
due to changes in the trajectory
of Atlantic cyclones and increased atmospheric moisture
content
+58 mm
+4 mm
+23 mm
Number of dayswith a high risk
of severe thunderstorm per year
Due to changes
in temperature and humidity
+6 days
+2 days
+5 days
Based on forecasting results,
the key climate risk factors for Nornickel facilities are permafrost
degradation, an increase in total annual precipitation (including more
frequent precipitation anomalies), and a higher likelihood
of thunderstorms. Most of the changes are expected to occur
after 2040.
To improve threat assessment,
it is also necessary to model climate‑dependent factors such
as river basin water availability, flood synchronisation, ice conditions along
the Northern Sea Route, and others. For example, low river water levels –
an issue the Company already faced in 2013 – may pose a threat
due to the potential:
shortage of water supply
for production and social facilities in Norilsk
increase in natural gas consumption
resulting from the additional load on combined heat and power plants
due to low reservoir levels and reduced output
at the Ust‑Khantayskaya and Kureyskaya hydropower plants.
IFRS S2 13b
Most industrial buildings and structures
in the Norilsk Industrial District are built on stable (rock)
foundations. However, linear infrastructure – including power lines, gas pipelines, water
pipelines, and railway infrastructure – as well as certain fuel storage
tanks, which are primarily located outside urban areas, are vulnerable
to permafrost degradation.
Expected changes in climate factors by 2050
vs 2022
IFRS S2 25a (v)
To mitigate risks associated with
the condition of permafrost soils in the Norilsk Industrial District,
the Company conducts ongoing monitoring of the technical condition
of its assets through expert assessments, inspections, and monitoring
of permafrost and foundation stability.
Factors
Factors
Activities
Monitoring
Repairs
Reconstruction
Construction
Permafrost degradation
Fuel storage tanks
Power lines
Gas pipelines
Heat and water supply pipelines
Railway
Increased frequency
of thunderstorms
Equipping power lines with
lightning surge protection systems and monitoring the number
of lightning strikes on powergrid facilities
Higher annual precipitation
Maintaining and modernising
hydraulic structures to ensure technical reliability
Higher frequency
of heavy precipitation
Monitoring the technical
condition of facilities and water levels
in the Norilskaya River and water reservoirs
According to the initial assessment,
the impact of climate risk factors in the short‑ and medium‑term horizon
until 2028 is mitigated as part of operational activities and through
initiatives and investment projects aimed at enhancing the reliability
of industrial assets and infrastructure.